A few years ago we traveled to Thailand for a family vacation. There is nothing more effective than a yoga class on Koh Tau, a magical island embraced by shores of white sand and adorned with coconut trees, for creating unexpected new friendships. One afternoon, my wife returned from her yoga class and told me excitedly of a new Iranian friend whose acquaintance she had made after class. That very evening, we went out with the Iranian couple to a local club, where we sipped fruit juice and discussed life in Iran and in Israel.
The next morning I went for a morning swim to observe the colorful fish populating the various coral reefs close to the island. While standing in the warm water, putting on my mask and snorkel, I suddenly noticed my wife's Iranian friend standing in front of me.
Once we got over our initial embarrassment (natural for a meeting between an Iranian and an Israeli in bathing suits), she asked: "Aren't you afraid of swimming here, among the coral?"
This innocent question deeply amused me. I smiled and said, "I'm from Israel, you're from Iran, and you are afraid to swim in the warm, tranquil waters of the coral reefs of Koh Tau?!"
As I observe the current media frenzy in Israel over the question of whether Israel intends to attack Iran's nuclear facilities, Thailand and its peaceful shores seem more distant than ever. The implicit question, one that has been with us for several years, is whether Israel can live with a nuclear Iran.
Although these are absolutely critical questions, I believe we must seek the real big question elsewhere.
In the 21st Century, anyone who has the money and the desire, sooner or later will acquire nuclear weapons. Sooner or later, Iran and other hostile entities will acquire nuclear weapons. These hostile entities may not necessarily be states. Terror groups could also procure the means to launch a nuclear attack. All it takes is the desire, the money, and time.
So the real big question is not whether Israel can attack Iran, or whether Israel should attack Iran, but rather, how can Israel prepare itself to face nuclear enemies and what must Israel do in the meantime. Yet there has been practically no public discussion of this question.
There are four reasons for the lack of debate:
One, because it is not a matter for politicians. The time-frame for politicians is usually no longer than the next few years. Naturally, their sights are always set on the next election, and in Israel elections typically take place every two to four years. So this issue will not be considered by the political leadership. The gauntlet must instead be picked up by other leaders, such as academics, rabbis, and intellectuals. Two, this idea is very tough to absorb. The thought is so very, very unpleasant and liable to cause so very many sleepless nights... so why should Israelis think about it? After all, we have plenty of other day-to-day troubles to concern us without adding to our woes.
Three, the implications are liable to upset the most basic values of the country. A friend of mine, a successful businessman and former Israeli who moved to Palo Alto with his family, claims that Palo Alto, with its high concentration of smart, talented Jews and former Israelis, is the "Noah's Ark" of the Jewish people. As my friend sees it, Israel will eventually be doomed, so it will be up to the Jews in Palo Alto to continue the race. Spending too much time thinking about weapons of mass destruction pointed at Israel, can certainly raise troubling thoughts among Israelis and might make many of them consider leaving the country.
Fourth, we have very limited means to deal with enemies who possess nuclear weapons that can reach Israel within minutes. The balance of power that has prevented the use of nuclear weapons up until now (excluding the US at the end of World War II), was maintained by a combination of mutual deterrence and of rationality on the part of the players. Let us just say that this combination is almost certainly not powerful enough to work indefinitely in our unstable neighborhood.
To sum up, the real big question is not whether Iran or another hostile entity will ever become a nuclear threat, but rather how Israel should deal with the situation as it happens.
Sagi Melamed lives with his family on Mitzpe Hoshaya in the Galilee. He serves as VP of External Relations at the Max Stern Yezreel Valley College, and as the head instructor at the Hoshaya Karate Club. Sagi received his MA degree from Harvard University in Middle Eastern Studies, specializing in conflict resolution. Contact Sagi at: Melamed.sagi@gmail.com November 2011
